It is gamble time for Arsène Wenger. The Arsenal manager has a choice. Does he back his rank outsider or does he quit while he can and call it a day without suffering any more damage? That is the question that ought to be at the forefront of his mind as he prepares to pick a team to take on a Milan team with a seemingly uncatchable 4-0 advantage. Yet, it seems Wenger's mind is already made up. He may value his team's chances at only 5% but that 5% is tantalising.

All logic points to being protective of his best players, those who need a rest and have been feeling knocks. Only last week he was spitting feathers about Robin van Persie and Thomas Vermaelen being used by their national teams, Holland and Belgium, in the middle of a hectic schedule when they were carrying injuries. So it makes sense to be cautious, does it not? Surely the risk of losing his most influential performers for the Premier League run-in is too great with the scoreline so weighted against them?

Not this time. Not when Wenger envisages the most overwhelming comeback in the history of the Champions League. It requires a turnaround that has no precedent in Europe's elite competition, yet the competitor in him cannot help but cling to the remote possibility that it can be done. "I would not be very credible to tell you we want to score five goals and then leave Robin van Persie out," said Wenger.

All is not lost according to the Arsenal manager but even selecting as strong a team as he can muster is a challenge. Aside from those in the danger zone in terms of their fitness, he is without a number of midfielders, starting the week with only Alex Song certainly available. Mikel Arteta is excluded after suffering concussion, Yossi Benayoun has a virus, Abou Diaby is back out for another couple of weeks at least and there is no Aaron Ramsey or Francis Coquelin to go with the long-term absence of Jack Wilshere. Tomas Rosicky is a doubt but Wenger is hopeful he can make it.

"He told me on Sunday that he will. But the medical staff are not sure. If Rosicky is not available I will be in a very difficult situation because I don't know what I can do then," said Wenger. The injury situation in that department, added to the need for goals, means Wenger is "tempted" to change formation. He may pick Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in a more central position, or top-load the team with strikers, which could be interesting one way or another.

Wenger remains wary of what Milan's attack are capable of themselves. He credits Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored a hat-trick at the weekend, and Robinho for giving his team a "torrid time". Kevin-Prince Boateng, who did not get mentioned but was equally dangerous, is unlikely to play at the Emirates.

Arsenal are keen to give a more positive impression than the shambles they portrayed at San Siro. At the time an ashen Wenger described the events as "shocking". Now, with some time and some positive results giving him a different perspective, Wenger admits his team were nervous in Milan.

Kieran Gibbs summed up the mood when he spoke of how devastated they were by the experience. "The whole team was quite hurt," said Arsenal's left-back. "You just have to turn up. If you don't on the night with not the best performance, and also no luck, then you have no chance. This gives us a great opportunity to get a sense of pride back. You don't like to accept getting beaten 4-0 in the Champions League. We have to believe, otherwise there is no point in being here. If they can beat us 4-0, then why can't we do the same? We have to create a faultless performance."

Although Wenger has not before overcome such odds, he did reflect on the famous game in 2004 when Deportivo La Coruña defeated Milan 4-0 in a second leg having lost the first 4-1. "I watched the whole game on the night," he said. "Sometimes when you made a big score, the difficulty is always psychological problems. You think you just need to turn up and make sure you defend well. And the other team has nothing to lose so they just go for it. La Coruña had some exceptional players."

Milan's goalkeeper, Christian Abbiati, was on the bench that night. "Milan have bad memories of that past experience against Deportivo – it's not over yet," he warned.

Wenger maintains miracles are worth believing in. As he said: "When you are a top-level competitor, even if statistically we have a 5% chance, what is important is that we believe that we can be in this 5%. That is what is at stake for us. Let's make sure that we do not miss out because we did not believe in it."